Penn State 2025 Football Schedule: Full Season Breakdown & Key Matchups

Penn State 2025 Football Schedule Breakdown from Top to Bottom

James Franklin’s squad enters 2025 with +650 to +800 odds to win it all — fourth-best in the nation, depending on where you lay your bets. The White Out warriors are powered by Drew Allar’s arm, Nick Singleton’s jets, and a defense anchored by Dani Dennis-Sutton, Kobe King, and Jaylen Reed — and they’ll need all of them.

Penn State opens with cupcakes like Nevada and FIU, but Oregon in primetime? That’s a whole different beast. And don’t sleep on road trips to Iowa and UCLA, either. The new-look Big Ten’s not playing fair.

Some games build résumés. Others ruin seasons.

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Let’s rank the Penn State 2025 Football Schedule from title-contending chaos to glorified scrimmage.

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#12. vs. Nevada (August 30)

Let’s be real — this ain’t about the Wolf Pack. It’s about reps, rhythm, and run-game dominance. Penn State’s handing out highlights, not handshakes. Nevada’s just here to collect a check and maybe a couple bruises.

Estimated Win Probability: 99.5%
Beaver Stadium might run outta fireworks.

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#11. vs. Florida International (September 6)

Another week, another walk-through in cleats. FIU’s bringing sunbelt vibes to a Big Ten brawl — and it won’t be pretty. Expect Nick Singleton to eat early and often while Drew Allar fine-tunes the deep ball.

Estimated Win Probability: 99.2%
This one’s over by halftime — bathroom lines might be the toughest battle.

#10. vs. Villanova (September 13)

Penn State fans remember 2021’s tight 38-17 win a little too well. Villanova’s FCS, sure — but they’ll swing big on trick plays and tempo. Still, with Dani Dennis-Sutton hunting QBs and Allar dialing in, expect order to be restored early.

Estimated Win Probability: 97.9%
Trap game potential, but only if Penn State forgets what division they’re in.

#9. at Rutgers (November 29)

The season finale could get weird if it’s freezing and raining in Jersey. But let’s be honest: Rutgers doesn’t have the horses. Jaylen Reed and Kobe King should feast on defense, and Singleton might rip a couple house calls.

Estimated Win Probability: 89.3%
Final tune-up before bowl season — just don’t let it turn into a Big Ten pillow fight.

#8. at Michigan State (November 15)

Sparty’s rebuilding — again. But weird things happen in East Lansing. If it’s cold and ugly, this could turn into a rock fight. Expect linebacker wars and a field goal fest if Allar doesn’t get early rhythm.

Estimated Win Probability: 78.6%
Keep it clean, keep it moving — no need to get dragged into a bar fight.

#7. vs. Indiana (November 8)

Indiana’s usually good for one chaotic shootout per year. Could this be it? Maybe. But this defense is different. With Dani Dennis-Sutton wrecking pockets and a rowdy Beaver Stadium, expect separation by the third quarter.

Estimated Win Probability: 76.4%
Closer than it should be, unless Allar lets it fly early.

#6. vs. Northwestern (October 11) 

Northwestern’s walking into Beaver Stadium with hope and a clipboard. Unless Penn State sleepwalks, this one’s built for Nick Singleton to eat and the scoreboard to flex. Could get ugly — fast.

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Estimated Win Probability: 74.1%
Slow start? Maybe. Scary finish? Not likely.

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#5. at Iowa (October 18)

Night game? Kinnick gets spooky. Iowa’s offense moves like a fax machine, but the defense hits like a brick wall. Still, with Allar’s arm and Singleton’s speed, Penn State has the firepower to survive the black-and-gold grind.

Estimated Win Probability: 65.8%
Bring your hard hat — this one’s a four-quarter fistfight.

#4. at UCLA (October 4)

Sun’s out, egos out — but this ain’t a vacation. UCLA’s still adjusting to life in the Big Ten meat grinder, and Beaver believers know this is no time to get cute. Don’t get distracted by palm trees and pretty uniforms — get the dub.

Estimated Win Probability: 61.2%
This is your final tune-up before November punches you in the mouth.

#3. vs. Nebraska (November 22)

Matt Rhule’s building a bully in Lincoln. By November, they could be dangerous. Still, Beaver Stadium in late November? That’s a different beast. If Dani Dennis-Sutton controls the edge, this turns into a one-sided affair.

Estimated Win Probability: 59.9%
Reputation game — no style points needed, just survive and advance.

#2. at Ohio State (November 1)

Circle it. Tattoo it. Write a diss track. This is the game. Columbus in November. Everything rides on how Allar handles the heat and whether the defense can keep up with the Buckeyes’ big-play barrage. Win this? Playoff buzz goes nuclear.

Estimated Win Probability: 44.6%
David meets Goliath — and this time, David’s benching 315.

#1. vs. Oregon (September 27)

Beaver Stadium. Whiteout. Prime time. You already know. This is the one you circle in July. Oregon’s no cupcake — they’re one of the few squads that can match Penn State in speed, depth, and stakes. If the Nittany Lions want to show they’re legit title contenders, it starts here.

Estimated Win Probability: 55.4%
This ain’t just a game. It’s a statement.

Penn State Football Schedule 2025