Baylor Football Schedule 2025: Every Game Ranked by Importance

Baylor Football Schedule Ranked from Warmups to War Zones

Dave Aranda’s back on the Baylor sideline with something to prove — and a schedule that won’t make it easy. With Sawyer Robertson leading the charge at quarterback, Taz Williams flashing at receiver, and Reggie Bush II & Ashtyn Hawkins in the mix, the Bears have playmakers on deck.

On defense, Jackson Blackwell and Kamauryn Morgan bring the heat up front, but they’ll need every ounce of it with Utah, TCU, and Oklahoma State all lurking.

The Baylor football schedule ain’t soft — it’s loaded with rivalries, road traps, and reputation games. Not every matchup is a knockout bout, but a few? Better circle ‘em in burnt orange.

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Let’s rank the Baylor football schedule from guaranteed wins to games that’ll test every ounce of green and gold grit.

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#11. at SMU (September 6)

Short road trip, early kickoff, and a team that loves catching you slippin’. SMU will try to test the secondary deep, but if Kamauryn Morgan and Jackson Blackwell get home, those shots won’t last long. Look for Sawyer Robertson to keep it clean and Reggie Bush II to make some noise on the edges.

Estimated Win Probability: 91.1%
Get in, punch ’em, get out. No drama needed.

#10. vs. Houston (November 29th)

Don’t let the old-school vibes distract you — this one still matters. Houston has some speed, but they’re thin in the trenches. Expect Taz Williams to carve them up underneath and Ashtyn Hawkins to break one if they try to press. Aranda’s defense should feast if they stay aggressive.

Estimated Win Probability: 87.6%
Turn up the pressure and this one ends early.

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#9. at Cincinnati (October 25th)

This has classic “get out of there with a win” energy. Cincinnati plays rough and physical, and their crowd stays loud, but Baylor’s defensive front is too strong to let this turn into an upset. Blackwell could wreck a series or two, and Kamauryn Morgan’s motor will show up late.

Estimated Win Probability: 81.3%
Nothing pretty — just line up and win a street fight.

#8. vs. UCF (November 1st)

Speed, misdirection, and chaos — UCF will try all of it. But Sawyer Robertson’s got the poise, and if he stays locked in, this turns into a shootout Baylor controls. Taz Williams could be a matchup nightmare against this secondary, and Jaylen Jenkins may finally break out here.

Estimated Win Probability: 77.9%
Don’t blink. Don’t flinch. Just finish.

#7. vs. Arizona State (September 20th)

ASU’s still building, but they’ll throw the kitchen sink if it keeps them in it. Baylor’s edge rush needs to close the pocket early, and Kamauryn Morgan could turn this into a long day for the Sun Devils’ QB. This is also a big opportunity for Ashtyn Hawkins to stretch the field.

Estimated Win Probability: 74.2%
No need for hero ball — just punch ’em out by the third.

#6. vs. Auburn (August 29)

This one’s spicy. National TV, Week 1, and a chance to make a statement against an SEC name brand. Sawyer Robertson will need to stay clean, but he’ll have Taz Williams and Reggie Bush II making plays in space. If Jackson Blackwell controls the interior, Baylor can bully their way to 1-0.

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Estimated Win Probability: 65.5%
Win this, and everyone starts taking Baylor seriously.

#5. vs. Kansas State (October 4)

Discipline. Defense. Death by 6-yard runs. Kansas State doesn’t beat themselves — they wait for you to blink. Baylor’s got to win the line of scrimmage and avoid giving them extra possessions. If Robertson stays upright and the defense gets a takeaway or two, this could be a defining home win.

Estimated Win Probability: 58.3%
Grit game. You don’t out-flash K-State — you outlast them.

#4. at Oklahoma State (September 27)

Stillwater in late September? Loud. Dusty. Tricky. Baylor hasn’t had the best luck up there, and Mike Gundy’s teams always show up ready to throw hands. Freshman RB Michael Turner could quietly be the X-factor here if Baylor leans on the run game to slow things down.

Estimated Win Probability: 52.1%
Bring your chinstrap — this one’s gonna be loud and long.

#3. at TCU (October 18)

The hate is real. The vibes are hostile. The stakes? Massive. This rivalry always delivers chaos, and playing it in Fort Worth only cranks up the tension. Aranda needs his defense to set the tone early, and Robertson’s got to protect the ball at all costs.

Estimated Win Probability: 49.8%
Blood, noise, bad feelings — just how it should be.

#2. vs. Utah (November 15)

No finesse here. Utah’s coming to brawl. This is one of the most physical teams in the country, and they don’t blink in cold weather or close games. Baylor’s offensive line will have to hold the line, and Blackwell’s got to disrupt their rhythm or they’ll wear the Bears down.

Estimated Win Probability: 43.4%
It ain’t personal — it’s just violent.

#1. at Arizona (November 22)

Back-to-back physical games, long road trip, and Arizona’s offense is no joke. This late-season showdown could decide bowl seeding — or more. Baylor’s secondary has to lock in, and if the front seven can’t create pressure, it could turn into a track meet fast.

Estimated Win Probability: 41.7%
The most dangerous game on the schedule — because it’s the easiest to overlook.

Baylor Football Schedule 2025

🏈 Craving more college football chaos? Check out Clemson’s 2025 schedule — ranked from warmups to war zones.

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Top 10s. Bold takes. Schedule breakdowns that actually bring the juice.