Clemson Football Schedule: 2025 Games Ranked by Importance

Ranking the 2025 Clemson Football Schedule from Least to Most Important

Dabo Swinney’s back for Year 18 — and so is the pressure cooker in Death Valley. Clemson’s dancing around +1400 to +1800 odds for a national title depending on where you lay your money, and they’re slight favorites to repeat as ACC champs at +240.

But let’s not kid ourselves. Not every game’s a heavyweight fight — some are warm-up laps. But a few? Circle ‘em in red ink, call Grandma, and get your lucky socks ready.

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Some games build a résumé, others break a season.

Let’s rank these suckers — headgear optional.

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#13. vs. Troy (August 30)

Let’s keep it 100 — this one’s a million-dollar warmup. Literally. Troy’s cashin’ a fat check, Clemson’s cashin’ reps. This is a preseason tune-up with uniforms. The Tigers are 4-0 all-time vs. the Trojans and haven’t blinked.

Estimated Win Probability: 99.7%
Cupcake city, population: Troy.

#12. vs. Furman (November 15)

This is the classic late-season breather before rivalry week and the postseason push. Furman hasn’t beaten Clemson since 1936, and that ain’t changing in 2025. Expect backups by the third quarter and plenty of orange in the end zone.

Estimated Win Probability: 99.8%
Clemson gets the dub, Furman gets the direct deposit.

#11. vs. Appalachian State (September 13)

App State’s no pushover — but they ain’t walking into Death Valley and outdueling Cade Klubnik. Look for the senior QB to pick apart a secondary that just doesn’t have the horses. And if they get out of hand early? Expect Tyler Brown to put a defender on a poster.

Estimated Win Probability: 94%
Respect the history, but Clemson ain’t the victim here.

#10. at Wake Forest (October 4)

Wake might hang around for a half, but once Phil Mafah starts leaning on ‘em, it’s goodnight. He’s built for fourth-quarter punishment. Barrett Carter and Peter Woods should feast on Wake’s smaller O-line — this one’s all about depth and dominance.

Estimated Win Probability: 86%
Could get weird, but probably won’t.

#9. vs. Virginia (October 18)

Another week, another victim. Avieon Terrell locks up Virginia’s top receiver early, and that’s all she wrote. Klubnik and Brown will connect on a few crowd-pleasers, and Mafah might have 100 before halftime if they lean into the run game.

Estimated Win Probability: 88%
Not a threat — unless the Tigers play down.

#8. at Boston College (October 25)

Cold temps, low energy, and a lunch-pail opponent. This one smells like a Phil Mafah 25-carry, control-the-clock performance. But keep your eyes on Peter Woods — this is where he reminds the country why he’s an NFL Sunday name-in-the-making. Could be a two-sack day.

Estimated Win Probability: 82%
Pack your run game and a hoodie — this one could get dicey.

#7. at NC State (November 8)

This one’s got trap game energy. NC State’s defense can get stingy, but Barrett Carter should be all over the field — setting the tone and blowing up screens. If Clemson gets caught looking ahead, Avieon Terrell might need to play hero with a momentum-flipping INT.

Estimated Win Probability: 75%
Call it a trap game if you want — just don’t call it easy.

#6. vs. Miami (October 11)

The U’s been trying to “be back” longer than VHS tapes — and last year, they almost were. Miami finished 2nd in the ACC and opened 2025 at +280 to win the conference, right behind Clemson.

But losing Cam Ward, their Heisman finalist and the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, is a game-changer. Talent’s still there, but rolling into Death Valley with a new QB? That’s a tall order.

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Peter Woods and Barrett Carter should feast, and if Klubnik finds Tyler Brown early, this could get lopsided.

Estimated Win Probability: 70%
Top 3 if Ward was still there. Now? Tigers hold serve at home.

#5. at Georgia Tech (November 22)

This is one of those “it’s not the opponent, it’s the timing” games. It’s right before South Carolina and possibly an ACC title rematch. Georgia Tech hasn’t beaten Clemson since 2014, but if the Tigers sleepwalk into Atlanta, it could get chippy. Expect Phil Mafah to chew clock and Barrett Carter to play enforcer in his home state.

Estimated Win Probability: 78%
Lookahead game written all over it — handle your business and move on.

#4. at South Carolina (November 29)

Hate. Week. The Gamecocks stole one in 2022, snapping Clemson’s 7-game streak. Payback’s still fresh. Cade Klubnik will need to stay calm in a hostile environment, but the real key? Peter Woods and the D-line harassing the QB like it’s personal. Which it is.

Estimated Win Probability: 65%
State bragging rights, recruiting juice, and playoff dreams — this one’s nuclear.

#3. vs. North Carolina (September 27)

Wait, what? Bill Belichick is coaching UNC now? Yep — hoodie and all. That alone makes this must-see TV. He’s never run a college team, but if anyone can turn UNC into a defensive machine, it’s him.

Avieon Terrell will have his hands full with UNC’s wideouts, but Klubnik vs. Belichick’s scheme might be the real chess match here. Don’t overlook this one — it’s a trap with teeth.

Estimated Win Probability: 60%
Old school meets new age — and it could tilt the ACC race early.

#2. vs. LSU (August 30)

Now we’re talkin’. National spotlight. Neutral site. SEC speed. Playoff résumé builder. If Cade Klubnik wants to be “that dude,” this is the proving ground. Barrett Carter and Peter Woods will have their hands full with LSU’s weapons, but this could launch Clemson into the CFP convo before Labor Day.

Estimated Win Probability: 52%
Call it a tone-setter. Lose, and the margin for error disappears.

#1. ACC Championship Game (December 6)

If Clemson handles its business, this is the must-win of all must-wins. Could be a rematch with UNC, Miami, or even FSU. Whoever it is — this is playoff elimination territory. Klubnik’s legacy, Mafah’s draft stock, Carter’s All-American case — they all ride on this game.

Estimated Win Probability (if they get here): 55%
This ain’t just a game — it’s survival.

Full 2025 Clemson Football Schedule